An Overview of Ensemble Forecasting and Data Assimilation

نویسنده

  • Thomas M. Hamill
چکیده

Many of the talks and posters during this year’s conference will discuss how both ensemble forecasting and atmospheric data assimilation can work synergistically together. We detail provide a brief description of the underlying theoretical basis for this research. The unifying idea is that the chaotic nature of the atmosphere can actually be put to use to improve data assimilation. Ensemble forecasts provide flow-dependent estimates of likelihood of a model-forecast state; modern data assimilation theory requires just this sort of estimate in order to determine how to effectively assimilate new observations. Thus, ensemble forecasting and data assimilation can be coupled into a unified theory. It is possible that data assimilation systems around the world 10 years hence will be using ensemble-based methodologies. It is time for this research to emerge from a being fringe discipline to being the central focus for how to improve data assimilation and numerical weather forecasts.

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تاریخ انتشار 2001